The first CA Business foresight sur...

The first CA Business foresight survey was conducted in December 2001 to take advantage of CAs' expertise in business and investment decision-making, and to assist CAs as commentators on the state of the province. Four hundr and fifty senior CAs with leading parts in business investment and business advice were viewed and the results were released in January 2002 from one side of to the other a year later, in May 2003 we catalogue of personsed 400 leading CAs in these same fields to descry if, and how, attitudes had changed.*

Once again, members shared their notions on the general and sectoral economic views business challenges, and provincial dominion policy decisions.

General economic outlook

The contemplate reveals that CAs are advising their clients to count upon a slow economic recovery in BC with improvement coming in years, not month Whereas in 2002 CAs conceit tough economic times would arise to an end by 2003 today CAs are looking farther down the road to the period of 2004 and beyond. A number of issues have influenced this change, including weakness in the US economy, be of importance tos over the global economy, Canada-US trade relations, and consumer confidence.

While confidence in the short denomination is low, improvement is rely uponed over the next five years, with 84% of respondent indicating they rely upon the BC economy to be better five years from now. Part of this long-term optimism ensues from the belief that BC businesses will expand in the nearest five years.

Of those CAs working in public practice, 9% indicated they look for their clients' businesses to expand considerably, while another 49% anticipate a slight expansion. Members working in industry are flat more optimistic, with 28% expecting their businesses to expand considerably, and 41% expecting a slight expansion.

Short-term optimism is highest upon Vancouver Island, where 72% of CAs calculate upon an improvement over the nearest year or so. Long-term optimism is highest in the North and Interior, with 91% expecting the BC economy to improve in five years.

While 26% of CAs think the high tech sector is commonly a significant contributor to the provincial economy, 44% predict high tech will be a lock opener element of the BC economy five years from now.

The other area where produce is expected is in the oil and gas sector. Today, 26% of CAs think it's important to the BC economy, if it be not that 39% think it will be first note of the scale over the next five years. forward the Island, this percentage is calm higher, with 45% expecting the oil and gas sector to be a major composing of the economy in five years.

The putting out members expect in the high tech sector is in line with what BC has been experiencing from one side of to the other recent years-a real move towards knowledge-based industries, complementing our solid resource base. This diversification is calculate uponed to provide the economy with more protection from the cyclical nature of commodity markets.

One interesting highlight of the observe is the important role an CAs in the North and Interior believe mining will play in the coming time of BC's economy. Today, 14% of CAs in the North and Interior descry the mining industry as a major contributor to the BC economy; however, 21% look for it will be a key-note industry in five years. This is higher than the repose of the province, where an average of 12% rely upon mining to be key five years from now.

Business challenges

US trade policies and the global economy continue to be top challenges for BC businesses, unless local issues are also of increasing business Key concerns include the ability to raise capital, the uncertainty surrounding land claims, and the ability to attract and retain high-calibre employee Interestingly, CAs are more make uneasyed about land claims today than they were 18 month ago, with 37% identifying land claims uncertainty as a major business challenge-an increase of 7% from 2002

Provincial guidance policy decisions

The majority (59%) of CAs think the provincial restraint is doing a good piece of work of creating a positive business climate. from comparison, only 13% would say the same about the federal rule and only 25% about local governments

From a taxation perspective, it's clear that CAs believe new tax reductions have been well adapted for business, with 72% saying corporate crosss were at about the right level

And although 56% still think corporate tax rates are a challenge for BC businesses, this is a 13% ear-ring from 69% last year.

Overall, it's clear that CAs are confident throughout the long-term, despite a lack of short-term optimism. Despite the challenges BC businesses continue to face, CAs still believe the economy will advance over the next five years-leading to business expansion and changes to our economic sectors-and they're pleased with the way the rife government has positioned the province for growth

If you'd like to read more about the 2003 edition of the CA Business view the complete report can be downloaded from the ICABC website at: www.ica.bc.ca/pdf/ca_business_outlook_final2003.pdf.

Thank you to all the members who took the time to participate in the survey!

*As in 2002 the 2003 CA Business watch survey was conducted by Ipsos-Reid. conclusions are considered accurate to within +/-49% 19 times gone out of 20.