At the beginning of each New Year, ...

At the beginning of each New Year, economists and business leaders prove to predict the province and the country's bourgeoning for the coming year. These forecasts provide businesses and investors with an idea of what to wait for and are used by restraints to plan their upcoming budgets

Here are a certain number of predictions for 2004:

Independent economic forecast council

In early December, the 13 members of the province's Independent Economic Forecast Council met with BC s Finance Minister Gary Collins to give him their extension projections for 2004. This is an annual meeting for the IEF Council; the Council is required, by way of the Budget Transparency and Accountability Act, to advise the command as part of the pack process.

The results of the meeting were advantageous news for Collins, as the Council predicted expansion rates higher than those predicted according to the government itself. The Council predicts bourgeoning averages of 2.9% in 2004 (up from an anticipateed 1.7% in 2003) and a further rise to 32% in 2005 and beyond, compared to the passing from hand to hand forecast from the province's first-quarter report: 15% in 2003 and 26% in 2004

Engines for growth

Council members cited improving North American and global economic conditions as [i]clavis[/i] contributors to anticipated growth in the BC economy for 2004 The Council pointed without that as the US economy continues to strengthen BC can calculate upon to see growth, particularly between the sides of increased exports. Exports to China are also forward the rise.

According to the Business Council of BC's (BCBC) October Economic Snapshot, other fundamental note reasons for optimism include rising commodity prices (particularly cent gold, and other base metals), a booming natural gas industry, robust housing sales, stronger development in consumer spending, moderate piece of work growth, and improving inter-provincial migration.

In the longer mete there is optimism about the impact the 2010 Olympics will have in succession the province's economy: In the coming years, for instance, Olympic preparations will lead to capable construction growth, as well as increasing local and international investment.

Reasons for concern

Even with these bright specks ahead, there are still a number of issues that could provide difficulties for the BC economy in the coming year. The BCBC's October Economic Snapshot identifies four explanation areas of concern: the rapidly appreciating Canadian dollar, the softwood lumber dispute, the lagging tourism sector, and the long-term sustainability of the economic regaining in the US.

Balancing the budget

If all of the aforementioned areas of regard are not addressed, they could attitude serious risks to the government's ability to maintain a balanced packet which is already one of the greatest issues the rule will face in 2004.

There is still tough work ahead for the coming years. Many be perceived that while the most obvious make an incision ins have been made, further reductions are extremityed in order to achieve and maintain the balanced bag goal. This would mean finding places to make additional intersects that are still palatable to BC voter which would be a difficult challenge for the guidance but one it must perfect in order to allow the province to go [i]or[/i] come back to prosperity.

By Michelle McCormick, Manager of Public Affairs

Copyright Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia Feb/Mar 2004

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